Wednesday, October 11, 2023

5 Year Prediction for X.com

Russell Coker and I have been bantering on Facebook about the state of Twitter / X. Russell suggested that I make a blog post since Facebook is not great for bookmarking. I'll copy in our discussion here:

Russell started with the comment "This explains a lot." and a link to this article:

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/was-elon-musks-strategy-twitter-rcna118490 I replied:

I replied:
Elon does what he wants to do based on his own analysis and the laws of physics. He rarely listens to anyone else, much less this "plan." Read the new biography by Walter Issacson, you'll really understand how his mind works.

Russell replied:
his mind isn't working properly. He has tanked Twitter's value and is decreasing the value of Tesla.

I replied:
Maybe Twitter/X's value is now where it should have been... Advertisers are coming back, engagement is beyond what Twitter ever had, contributors can earn money, this is just the beginning on the path to X, that he envisioned back in the 90s. NEVER underestimate him. And Tesla is doing just fine.

Russell replied:
if Twitter's value now is what it should have been then a smart businessman would have paid the current value.
Citation needed on advertisers coming back.
The most valuable contributors are the ones who will never earn any amount of money that is useful to them.
Tweet is in dictionaries, that's the sort of business intangible value most executives dream about and he's destroying it.

I replied:
Twitter's board would have rejected any lower offer. You've got to change to long-term thinking, at least 5 years out to see the vision he has for X. He's shown over and over that his relentless drive for change has upended traditional business modes. Vehicles, rockets, energy storage, Internet service, solar, brain implants and soon social media+finance and robotics. Bookmark this and we'll discuss in 5 years.

Russell replied:
satellite internet has latency that makes it unusable for anyone who has any other option. That's why it's been around since the 90s with little use apart from people in remote areas.
Tesla didn't change the car business model, Uber did that.
The brain implants thing was a failure. Killing those monkeys set it back if anything.
Facebook isn't designed for bookmarking things. If you think you are right create a blog and put your predictions there.

I replied:
Let me address your points:

1) Yes, OLD satellite service was unusable, that's why Starlink is at much lower altitudes, in shells around 340 miles rather than 22,500 miles. It's designed for latency so low you can effectively play video games. It also has optical laser sat-to-sat communication to find the best possible data path for each packet. It's available in all of the US now, plus about 60 other countries. It's also availble on airliners, cruise ships and a mobile unit for RVs. It has 2 million subscribers around the world, including thousands of dishes provided to the Ukranian army for free. https://www.starlink.com/map

2) Tesla's massive success around the world has caused every other car company to panic and jump into EVs. Some have good models, some are medicore, others are too late to the game and will go bankrupt. In conjunction with climate targets, countries around the world have set deadlines for the last gas cars to be sold, starting in 2025 with a huge list in 2030. NONE of this would have happened without Tesla. The Uber model only displaced traditional taxis, not EVs. The rideshare/taxi model will be addressed by Tesla's robotaxi service.

3) Neuralink has had a lot of fake bad press. They just got permission from the FDA for their first human clinical trials. Sound like a failure?

Here's the link to a copy of our discussion in my blog: