5 Year Prediction for X.com

Russell Coker and I have been bantering on Facebook about the state of Twitter / X. Russell suggested that I make a blog post since Facebook is not great for bookmarking. I'll copy in our discussion here:

Russell started with the comment "This explains a lot." and a link to this article:

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/was-elon-musks-strategy-twitter-rcna118490 I replied:

I replied:

Elon does what he wants to do based on his own analysis and the laws of physics. He rarely listens to anyone else, much less this "plan." Read the new biography by Walter Issacson, you'll really understand how his mind works.

Russell replied:

his mind isn't working properly. He has tanked Twitter's value and is decreasing the value of Tesla.

I replied:
Maybe Twitter/X's value is now where it should have been... Advertisers are coming back, engagement is beyond what Twitter ever had, contributors can earn money, this is just the beginning on the path to X, that he envisioned back in the 90s. NEVER underestimate him. And Tesla is doing just fine.

Russell replied:

if Twitter's value now is what it should have been then a smart businessman would have paid the current value.
Citation needed on advertisers coming back.
The most valuable contributors are the ones who will never earn any amount of money that is useful to them.
Tweet is in dictionaries, that's the sort of business intangible value most executives dream about and he's destroying it.

I replied:
Twitter's board would have rejected any lower offer. You've got to change to long-term thinking, at least 5 years out to see the vision he has for X. He's shown over and over that his relentless drive for change has upended traditional business modes. Vehicles, rockets, energy storage, Internet service, solar, brain implants and soon social media+finance and robotics. Bookmark this and we'll discuss in 5 years.

Russell replied:

satellite internet has latency that makes it unusable for anyone who has any other option. That's why it's been around since the 90s with little use apart from people in remote areas.
Tesla didn't change the car business model, Uber did that.
The brain implants thing was a failure. Killing those monkeys set it back if anything.
Facebook isn't designed for bookmarking things. If you think you are right create a blog and put your predictions there.

I replied:
Let me address your points:

1) Yes, OLD satellite service was unusable, that's why Starlink is at much lower altitudes, in shells around 340 miles rather than 22,500 miles. It's designed for latency so low you can effectively play video games. It also has optical laser sat-to-sat communication to find the best possible data path for each packet. It's available in all of the US now, plus about 60 other countries. It's also availble on airliners, cruise ships and a mobile unit for RVs. It has 2 million subscribers around the world, including thousands of dishes provided to the Ukranian army for free. https://www.starlink.com/map

2) Tesla's massive success around the world has caused every other car company to panic and jump into EVs. Some have good models, some are medicore, others are too late to the game and will go bankrupt. In conjunction with climate targets, countries around the world have set deadlines for the last gas cars to be sold, starting in 2025 with a huge list in 2030. NONE of this would have happened without Tesla. The Uber model only displaced traditional taxis, not EVs. The rideshare/taxi model will be addressed by Tesla's robotaxi service.

3) Neuralink has had a lot of fake bad press. They just got permission from the FDA for their first human clinical trials. Sound like a failure?

Here's the link to a copy of our discussion in my blog:

https://porsche914e.blogspot.com/.../5-year-prediction...

 I just finished reading "Project Hail Mary" by Andy Weir and I noticed a HUGE shoutout to Cody, the YouTuber behind Cody'sLab and Cody'sBLab.  Here's a screenshot:

The ESP32 ProtoBoard Home Page

This is a placeholder for documentation for the ESP32 ProtoBoard.

This will be the location for documentation and sample code.

The bitly link is: bit.ly/ESP32ProtoBoard

DC Voltage & Current Sensor with CANbus Output Device Home Page

The "DC Voltage & Current Sensor with CANbus Output" Device Home Page.

This is a placeholder for documentation for the DC Voltage & Current Sensor with CANbus Output device.

My Tour of the Tesla Gigafactory - September 22, 2017

At long last, I can reveal my super-secret, super-geeky event - a tour of the Tesla Gigafactory! Due to confidentiality, details are light but what is there is interesting, and you get to see several early Tesla Model 3 cars.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thqi09aJZHg

The 914E is For Sale

Short Story: My restored and electric converted Porsche 914E is for sale.  According to my records, I've got about $40,000 into it, not including my own labor.  I'm willing to make a very good deal to give it a new home.  Please contact me at mwbrown42@gmail.com to discuss.  The full restoration and conversion process is covered in excruciating detail here in this blog.

Long Story: I've been living in Thailand now for almost 4 years.  I've had a few plans come and go in that time and now I realize that I'm likely here for good, and not returning home.  The Thai government's policy on importing cars is frankly ridiculous, so bringing it over here is not in the realm of possibility.  My costs for storage and insurance keep adding up, so I've come to the realization that it's time to sell.

To get the car on the road, you'll need 1) a set of batteries since I pulled the originals and sold them to a golf cart shop and 2) a shock absorber due to a de-trailering incident.  This gets you a daily driver capable of about 50 miles of range and a top speed of 70 miles per hour, but not at the same time!

The car is located in Paso Robles, California, halfway between L.A. and San Francisco, near the coast.  It can easily be picked up by a car transport company or you can come and get it yourself and trailer it home.

A short history of the car for those who don't want to read from the origin story of the blog: It's a 1973 Porsche 914, with the factory 1.7 liter engine.  I bought it on eBay with the description of "It looks good from 10 feet."  I drove it home and could see the rust and other issues from about 9 feet.  I stripped the car down to the frame and gave it to a restoration shop.  They gave it back in fully restored pristine condition.  I then converted it to full electric using the ElectroAuto Porsche 914 kit, along with several customizations of my own.  I happily drove the car and took it to several car shows, winning First In Class at Warbirds, Wings and Wheels.  When I took early retirement and moved to Thailand, I put the car in storage in an airplane hangar, under the watchful eye of the owner of the hangar.  I've visited the car since leaving and she's still in perfect condition under a car cover.

So that's it.

If you or anyone you know might be interested, please contact me at mwbrown42@gmail.com.

Battery Pack and Related Electrics Version 2.0

I spent the afternoon of my birthday playing around with a new Lithium ion battery pack design for the 914, if I ever return to civilization.

To save money and complexity, I'll keep the existing Curtis 1231C-8601 controller which is rated for a maximum 144V pack and 500 amps.  This is still sufficient for me driving through town.

Based on years of experience at EVTV with the China Aviation Lithium Battery Company (CALB) 180AH CA-series cells, I know how to bottom-balance them, charge them and discharge them safely.  This is in deference to the many YouTube guys building up Tesla-like 18650 packs from dodgy laptop battery packs.  I did the math to determine I need 42 of the CALB cells at a nominal 3.4V each.

I brought up an old SketchUp model I made a couple of years ago and worked out how to place these batteries and other components.  I'll fill up the rear battery box where the gas engine used to be and put the rest in the battery box where the gas tank used to be, with a good amount of space left over.

This means I can remove the 2 single-battery-sized boxes from the trunk and weld some steel plates into place, prime and paint and turn it back into a fully usable trunk.

I also gain all of the capacity of the battery box where the spare tire used to be right in the front.  I created shapes matching the sizes of the rest of the components I need and fitted them all into place.  This means the new TCCH 4KW or 5KW charger I'm looking at and its controller, the new GEVCU controller, the existing relay board and the existing DC-DC converter all fit inside the front box.  The TCCH is air cooled but the box already has an exhaust fan that switches on during charging, so it looks like it will be a perfect setup.

Cleverly I'm moving the 12V auxiliary battery from it's ugly, nasty, breaking-off-prone mounting bracket on the front of the front battery box to inside the gas tank battery box due to some newly available space.  I'll run the 12V wires down the passenger side of the frunk to the DC-DC controller and leave the high voltage battery pack wiring where it runs now down the driver's side.  There's even still a bit of empty space so I'll play with the position of the batteries to maintain side-to-side weight balance and fill the gaps with some stiff foam.

So, here's the layout.  I've also built up a list of to-do items, some must be done concurrently with this major upgrade, while the rest can be done at my leisure.  I'll bling up the installation by replacing the white plastic battery pack lids with transparent lids.

Tesla Paris Chambourcy Showroom and Service Center

From the Paris Ouest Tesla showroom, I took another series of trains and subways to get as far as I could to St. Germain, home of the famous PSG football team.  From there it's a 20 minute bus ride to Chambourcy.  I made it to the store with about 15 minutes to go before closing time, whew!  I took some pictures and had a chat with one staffer until closing time.

Tesla Paris Ouest France Showroom and Service Center

While in Paris I discovered two Tesla locations, one easy to get to and one difficult.  I went to the easy one first in Paris Ouest.  I did a series of subway and outer-region train rides and a long walk to get there.  Turns out it's a service center only now, they moved the showroom two weeks ago to the other location that's about 30km away to the west.  The staff were very helpful, pulling out a map and showing me what public transport I'd have to take to get there.

Tesla Tilburg Netherlands Showroom and European Factory

The Tilburg factory is a 2 hour walk, train, bus and walk in the pouring rain but hey if I'm that close I have to do it.

I walk into the Visitor center at the factory to find that it's not the factory anymore!  It's now a showroom, service center and warehouse since September.  The very helpful man there explained everything and pointed me towards the new factory just down the road.

I walk in more pouring rain to the new building.  This is a massive building, about 200 meters wide and 40 tractor-trailer-loading-bays long.

I walked into the first sliding glass door but it looked like an employee entrance, so I went out and then into the next door which led me into a big visitor room with floor-to-ceiling glass walls looking right into the factory.

The "factory" is what I would call final assembly, about the size of a basketball court, done this way to reduce the taxes payable for fully assembled cars brought into the country for distribution around Europe.  The cars come four to a shipping container, with the wheels bolted onto the hubs so they can roll.  The cars enter what is labelled "General Assembly", riding on a smart cart and they move in an S-shaped work line where the car is grabbed from above with a big claw-like hanger.   The wheels come off, the battery pack is installed, the drivetrain(s) are installed and then the wheels go back on again.  They fill it with windshield washer fluid and then flash the software at which point the car is driveable.  The car is lowered onto another smart cart and makes its way to final inspection for paint and water leakage.  It comes off the cart and goes through an indoor test track about 900m long with bumps designed to make squeaky things squeak.  They then are driven over into the detailing area then parked waiting for shipment though Europe or for local pickup.

All this time, several people walked through the visitor area and nobody seemed to be worried about me with my nose pressed up against the glass.  Finally a young man walked over and introduced himself.  He was the Delivery Specialist, handling about 8 - 10 local pickups every day.  One customer with a new titanium colored Model S drove past me and out the door with a huge smile on his face.  I told my story and we talked for about half an hour.  He then told me it was OK to take pictures through the glass, I said I hadn't up to then because of the no-picture rule in Fremont but he said there are no secrets here, so he took a few pictures of me, then I took a few more.  He then went back to his desk and brought out a stainless steel Tesla pen for me, I'm very thankful for his gift.  Well that was an awesome visit.

Tesla Amsterdam Zuid-Oost Netherlands Showroom, Service Center and European Headquarters

On the Amsterdam city outskirts is another Tesla location.  This one combines a showroom, huge service Center and the Tesla European headquarters.  All support calls in Europe come here and staff is available in all supported languages.

I thought it was interesting that Tesla had a big "we're hiring" sign outside the office.

Tesla Amsterdam Netherlands Showroom

I walked to the Tesla showroom, of course.  It's in a tiny storefront in an upscale part of town.  The young man working there said electric cars are really coming in the Netherlands, nearly every street has at least one charging station so the infrastructure is there and ready for more cars.

New Electric Amsterdam Netherlands

Continuing my trip, I made a stop in Amsterdam and visit Anne Kloppenborg and his New Electric company, building electric cars and boats.

I made my way to Anne's workshop which is tucked in behind some industrial buildings.  I walked into the right shop and saw Ray and Celso and Anne.

A customer Volvo was up on the hoist being converted for the CEO of an electric car charger station company.  The Delta boat that didn't finish the English Channel crossing was in pieces, apparently the contactor failed from heat thrown off by the fuse that was running near its limit.  3/4 of the way across the English Channel is a tough place to have an electrical glitch!  A simple redesign of that part of the circuit should avoid concentrating the heat, with a next try scheduled for December.  The 818 project is in process but delayed by paying customer work (which is always good to have!)  There was a small cabin boat out the back in the canal being converted.

Trying to help out a bit, I built up a parallel pack of 10 CALB CA100 batteries and Celso initiated the bottom balancing process.  I was careful not to drop the wrench across the battery terminals...

Anne had a meeting with an electric boat motor company at a trade show in town so we went in.  I got a visitor badge and we found the booth.  While Anne talked with them, I explored the next few aisles of products.

Later in the week we walked down to the two canal boats that Anne had installed electric motors and batteries into.  These are new and he did the installation in conjunction with the boat manufacturer.  The battery packs hold 180 KWH, this is a monster, as much as two Teslas, folks!  They have between 2000 and 3000 hours of service in only 8 months and they're still purring along.

Tesla Copenhagen Denmark Showroom and Electric Bicycles

Continuing my trip I tracked down the Tesla showroom in Copenhagen.  This is a very dense city with small streets and the showroom was tiny but in a high-end shopping area.  They did have just enough room for a rolling chassis and a production 90D model running the brand-new AutoPilot software update.  I spotted 4 other Teslas around town.  Due to a change in government, the tax-free status of electric cars is going away soon and will now be subject to the 200% tax levied on all cars.  Maybe tax free is too much of a break but a little social engineering always helps to move society towards a zero-emission, renewable energy future.

We walked outside and down a block to a rack of electric bicycles!  Woo hoo!  Simon entered his account information on the touch screen and away we went.  It has 3 speeds and uses a pedal-assist method.  You start pedalling and the motor turns on and gives you a strong assist, you just need to keep gently pedalling.  If you stop, you get a nice regen.  We rode through the city over to a canal with a sightseeing boat and checked the bikes into another rack.  Cost for the ride was DK25 or about $4.

As we walked away from the bike rack, I spotted a VW plugged into an electric charging station, and a guy with professional camera equipment taking pictures.  He said the car was on sale in Sweden now and would come here next March, so he was taking pictures for the brochure to be used here.

Tesla Birmingham England Showroom and Service Center

Continuing on my trip, I was visiting a friend near Birmingham England when I realized that there is a Tesla location nearby, so off we went.

It's quite a large location near the city center.  I took some pictures and talked with a young woman who was just recently hired.  I walked out into the back parking lot to look at the cars waiting to be delivered and was politely chased out, turns out I can't go back there, sorry!

Tesla Sarasota Florida Showroom

I drove over to the west coast of Florida to visit my friend from way back in High School and visit the Tesla Sarasota showroom.  Like two others I've visited here, it's in a shopping mall.

For a Monday, there were a lot of people in the mall and a steady stream of potential customers coming in and looking at the chassis and assembled car.

Sadly, no pictures.  I'm pretty sure at this point my camera is deleting pictures behind my back...

Tesla Tampa Florida Showroom and Service Center

Continuing my trip, I visited the Tampa showroom and service center.  Despite the hints on the Tesla web page, this location is very hard to find.  It's in a complex of one-story professional and light industrial offices.

Once inside though I was happy to meet with Agnes, a transplanted Scot who talked with me for a long time about her showroom, service center and Tesla in Florida.  You can just barely see the service center through the glass doors.

Tesla Miami Dadeland Florida Showroom

The end of the long day brought us to the Miami Dadeland Tesla showroom.  The showroom in Miami beach I went to last year is no more, it was getting more tourists than folks actually in the market for the car, so this site was opened.

As with the Boca Raton showroom, this one is in a mall.  There were less people in the mall here this afternoon for some reason.

Sorry, again no pictures.

Tesla Dania Beach Florida Showroom and Service Center

We then drove south to the Dania Beach showroom & service center which is just a little bit north of Fort Lauderdale.

There we met Franklin, a very enthusiastic young man!  He invited us for a test drive in a Ludicrous mode car, which has just been released and I was not going to pass up on this opportunity.  We did 3 passes up and down the service road next to the airport runway.  The acceleration is mind-blowing.  I didn't have the courage to keep my foot on the floor until the third run.  Big thanks to Franklin and best of luck to him in the future.

With my body buzzing with adrenaline, I completely forgot to get any pictures!

Tesla Boca Raton Florida Showroom

Continuing south, we stopped in at the Town Center mall in Boca Raton, home of the Tesla showroom.  There were so many people walking into the store that I only had time for a brief chat with Dan.  Shopping malls are a good way to get eyes on the car and plant a seed in people's minds.

Charging stations in the mall parking lot.